The third man - part two

So, our boy finds himself, against all odds, in the Oval Office.

The economy is not in a recession but it's not growing, and there are signs that it's about to start declining. The Republicans in the House of Representatives propose a plan that they say will kick-start it--this is one of those things Republicans love, where tax breaks and subsidies are given to corporations and enormously wealthy individuals because they think these entities will spend it on growing their businesses, hiring new people, expanding, etc., etc. Instead of taking the extra money and investing it in yatchs, private jets, and in off-shore manufacturing and support, which is what they actually do with it.

Anyways, economists love this plan and say it's just what the economy needs. Support in Congress--where Republicans hold a large edge in the House and a slight edge in the Senate--is great. A major push is on to get this bill passed into law.

POTUS consults his staff, who tell him he would be insane to veto the bill. He should either pocket veto it, or sign it into law. A straight up veto would be a disaster--Congress has more than enough votes to override his veto and he's already seen as a weak, ineffectual President.

POTUS calls an old college buddy who is now an economics professor at a small college in the mid-West. His friend tells him that he thinks this bill is a bad idea--it'll benefit the economy for two quarters or so, then it'll begin to collapse. POTUS decides his friend is right and announces that he's going to veto the bill.

His staff has a collective stroke. They say it will be the end of his presidency and he's not even done with his first year yet. He'll become irrelevant in the political process. He'll be a laughing stock. He'll lose re-election, and Republicans will hold the White House for at least three terms afterwards.

Nevertheless, he vetoes the bill.

Congress gleefully overrides his veto and the bill becomes law.

For two quarters the economy is booming, expanding, the stock market climbing steadily, and Congressional Republicans are very busy pounding each other on the back, congratulating themselves, trying to decide who among them will be the next occupant of the Oval Office.

Then it all goes to hell. In three days the Dow falls below where it was when this bill became law, and keeps falling. The economy goes into reverse, quickly, and the word "recession" is being tossed around. Since Congressional Republicans were so vocal about this law, and pretty much anybody who knows anything about how the economy works says it's responsible for the problems we're now having, it's kind of difficult the GOP to deflect the blame.

POTUS, for his part, does not start trumpeting, "I told you so!" Instead he meets with Congressional delegations to discuss repealing this law, and what can be done to minimize the damage. Of course, now they are willing to listen.

After some desperate but measured and reasonable action, and some painful decisions are arrived at, things gradually start getting better. It was difficult, and painful, and involved a lot of sacrifice, but it appears the crisis has been averted.

In spite POTUS's leadership, his insistance on sticking to his principals, and the fact that he was right all along, Republicans are still working to undermine him. He's gained some credibility and some allies now so he needs to be undermined, they think, and efforts begin to make him seem to be ineffectual, weak, and lacking gravitas.

Then, disaster happens.

(To be continued. . .)